Global energy markets appear to be operating under a fragile assumption: that the disruption in the Persian Gulf will be temporary.
Futures prices in both oil and natural gas reflect that expectation — for now.
Brent crude remained relatively stable on March 4, 2026, trading close to $80 per barrel, while European natural gas prices actually declined. The benchmark TTF contract fell from €60 to €49 per MWh, with futures for the coming months suggesting similar levels for May and even lower prices from June onward.
In other words, markets are still betting that the crisis will not last long.
There are, of course, speculative positions emerging. Some traders are purchasing energy contracts today in anticipation of further price increases. Yet this activity remains limited, as the broader market continues to treat the current disruption as manageable.
That assumption may prove dangerously optimistic.
Brussels Downplays the Risk
European officials signaled on Tuesday that no emergency measures are currently deemed necessary regarding natural gas supplies.
EU authorities confirmed that a special working group will meet to examine the situation in greater detail and evaluate potential responses if conditions deteriorate.
A similar message was delivered in Greece, where Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou both emphasized that the country possesses sufficient resources to avoid fuel shortages.
But this narrative faces a hard reality.
At present, there is no guarantee that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved quickly. Even if physical supply disruptions remain limited, rising energy prices alone could create a serious economic problem for Europe.
Shipping Industry Skeptical of Trump Proposal
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed a plan aimed at restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The idea involves offering low-cost insurance for commercial vessels, combined with potential protection from the U.S. Navy, in order to encourage shipping companies to resume operations through the critical waterway.
However, sources within the global shipping industry remain deeply skeptical.
Beyond the technical and legal complications of rapidly implementing such an insurance mechanism, the core issue is risk. Shipping companies and oil traders are unlikely to expose vessels and crews to potential attacks simply to test whether the route is safe.
Their caution appears justified.
On Wednesday, a commercial ship attempting to cross the Strait reportedly came under attack and caught fire, reinforcing concerns that the situation remains far from stable.
Industry players want to see clear and decisive security guarantees before sending vessels back into the region. Many interpret Trump’s statements as effectively placing the responsibility on private companies to take the first step — something they are unwilling to do.
The Military Equation
On the military front, there are indications that Iran may have already used roughly half of its ballistic missile stockpile in recent strikes.
If accurate, that could reduce the frequency of missile attacks in the coming days or weeks — potentially opening the door for a forceful effort to secure maritime routes.
Yet the bigger threat may not be missiles.
Iran’s growing arsenal of long-range drones is capable of striking targets with increasing precision, particularly in waters close to Iranian territory. Commercial vessels navigating the Strait would therefore remain vulnerable even if missile activity declines.
The key question becomes simple but critical:
How long would it actually take to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Energy markets may not have the luxury of waiting for the answer.
What Happens If the Crisis Lasts More Than a Month?
There are still multiple pathways for de-escalation. Diplomacy could ease tensions, or Iran could ultimately allow vessels to pass through the Strait without interference.
But there is also a very real possibility that the disruption will last longer than markets currently expect.
If the crisis stretches beyond several weeks, energy analysts warn that natural gas prices in Europe could surge dramatically.
Some executives in the domestic energy sector estimate that TTF prices could climb as high as €150 per MWh after one month of disruption.
Such levels would approach the extreme prices seen during the 2022 European energy crisis, transforming what markets currently treat as a temporary shock into a full-scale economic challenge.
For now, markets remain calm.
But if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed longer than expected, that calm may prove short-lived.
AI TAKEAWAYS
- Energy markets are currently pricing in a short-lived disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Even without supply shortages, higher energy prices alone could hit Europe’s economy.
- Shipping companies are reluctant to test security guarantees without clear military protection.
- Iran’s drone capabilities may pose a larger threat than missiles to maritime traffic.
- If the crisis lasts longer than one month, Europe could face another major gas price spike similar to 2022.
FAQ
Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for global energy markets?
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints.
Could Europe face another energy crisis?
If disruptions last longer than expected, natural gas prices could spike sharply, potentially reaching levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
Why are shipping companies hesitant to return to the Strait?
Despite proposed insurance and naval protection, companies remain concerned about attacks on vessels and crews.
How high could gas prices go?
Some analysts warn that European gas prices could reach €150/MWh if the disruption lasts more than a month.
AI TAKEAWAY
👉 Markets are betting the Strait of Hormuz disruption will be temporary.
👉 If the crisis lasts more than a few weeks, Europe could face another major energy price spike.